Gartner: AI coding bills could exceed the average developer’s salary by 2028
The forecast uses a global salary benchmark. Even with that caveat, paying the coding assistant is becoming a less comfortable part of the automation pitch.
Gartner predicts that spending on AI coding tokens per developer could exceed the average developer’s salary by 2028. Its June 24, 2026 forecast puts an awkward price tag on the promise of cheaper software: the assistant hired to shrink the payroll may eventually need a comparable budget of its own.
The comparison needs a footnote. Gartner analyst Nitish Tyagi told InfoWorld that the forecast uses a global salary benchmark of $2,000 a month. That puts the comparison in a different light in higher-paying markets, even if the figure is still uncomfortable for a tool sold on efficiency.
Behind the warning is a shift toward charging for usage alongside software subscriptions. Coding agents can consume more tokens as they work through large amounts of context. Tyagi also cautions that higher token consumption has no direct relationship with productivity gains.
For companies, the arithmetic is getting interesting: a developer’s pay now comes with the cost of the tool meant to make that work cheaper. That can pay off when it delivers more useful results. The volume of generated code alone cannot settle the calculation. In the impressive demo, the agent works quickly. In the budget, so does the meter.
Prepared with AI assistance.
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